| 宋沂霏,郝雅立,胡峰.突发公共事件网络舆情风险传播态势的多阶段生成机理研究——基于64个案例的fsQCA分析[J].数字图书馆论坛,2025,21(7):20~30 |
| 突发公共事件网络舆情风险传播态势的多阶段生成机理研究——基于64个案例的fsQCA分析 |
| Multi-Stage Generation Mechanisms of Propagation Dynamics of Online Public Opinion Risk in Public Emergencies: fsQCA of 64 Cases |
| 投稿时间：2025-06-18 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2025.07.003 |
| 中文关键词: 突发公共事件；网络舆情；舆情风险传播；信息生态理论；fsQCA |
| 英文关键词: Public Emergency; Online Public Opinion; Public Opinion Risk Propagation; Information Ecology Theory; fsQCA |
| 基金项目:本研究得到天津市教委社会科学重大项目“常态化疫情防控下天津高校舆情导控的社会共治研究”（编号：2022JWZD53）、华东政法大学研究生学术研究及社会调研项目“异质资源禀赋下超大城市社区的风险识别与韧性重塑——基于S市案例的实证究”（编号：2025-2-022）资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 宋沂霏 | 华东政法大学政府管理学院 | | 郝雅立 | 天津商业大学公共管理学院 | | 胡峰 | 江苏省科学技术情报研究所；江苏省科学技术发展战略研究院 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 突发公共事件网络舆情风险传播态势受多元信息要素与生态结构共同作用而动态演化，识别其生成机理有助于防范舆情生态失衡，提升舆情风险治理的精准性。以64起突发公共事件为样本，采用融合生命周期阶段的fsQCA方法，探讨信息生态要素对舆情风险传播态势的驱动机理及联合效应。突发公共事件网络舆情风险传播态势呈现阶段性变化特征，不同维度的信息要素共同决定舆情风险传播的方向与强度。舆情形成期，风险呈多中心传导与扩散，主要由政府回应的及时性等因素组合作用形成；舆情高涨期，事件热度、网络媒体及意见领袖互动作用助推舆情风险传播态势生成；舆情衰退期，事件属性及平台联动的影响机理决定风险传播态势的发展走向。据此，应根据舆情生命周期各阶段风险传播态势的成因差异，因时制宜采取精准化风险治理策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Risk propagation in online public opinion during public emergencies evolves dynamically under the joint influence of heterogeneous information elements and the information-ecology structure. Identifying its generation mechanisms helps rebalance that ecology and enhance precision governance. Using 64 emergencies, we employ an fsQCA approach that integrates life-cycle stages to examine the driving mechanisms and joint effects of information-ecology elements on these propagation patterns. The risk propagation of online public opinion in public emergencies shows multi-stage characteristics, and information elements in different dimensions jointly determine the direction and intensity of the risk propagation of public opinion. In the emergence phase, risks are transmitted and diffused in a multi-centered manner, driven chiefly by configurations including governmental response timeliness. In the peak phase, the interaction of issue salience, online media, and opinion leaders boosts the generation of the propagation trend of public opinion risks. In the decline phase, event attributes and cross-platform coupling govern risk propagation trend. Therefore, according to the differences in the causes of the risk propagation in each stage of the public opinion life cycle, targeted risk governance strategies should be adopted according to the time. |
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