| 张敏,雷鑫,沈嘉裕.农业突发公共事件舆情风险评估指标的
体系构建与影响力分析[J].数字图书馆论坛,2025,21(3):29~38 |
| 农业突发公共事件舆情风险评估指标的
体系构建与影响力分析 |
| System Construction and Influence Analysis of Public Opinion Risk Assessment Indices for Agricultural Public Emergencies |
| 投稿时间：2024-11-27 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2025.03.004 |
| 中文关键词: 农业突发公共事件；网络舆情；风险评估；影响力分析；信息生态理论 |
| 英文关键词: Agricultural Public Emergency; Internet Public Opinion; Risk Assessment; Influence Analysis; Information Ecology Theory |
| 基金项目:本研究得到国家自然科学基金面上项目“重大风险事件中AIGC深伪信息对社交媒体生态系统韧性的影响研究”（编号：72474165）资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 张敏 | 武汉大学信息资源研究中心 | | 雷鑫 | 武汉大学信息管理学院 | | 沈嘉裕 | 武汉大学信息管理学院 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 农业突发公共事件网络舆情应对成效紧系农民生计、关乎农业繁荣与乡村振兴大局，建立农业突发公共事件网络舆情的风险评估体系，可以为农业突发公共事件网络舆情的预防和应急处理提供有力的决策支持。首先，基于信息生态理论分析农业突发公共事件网络舆情风险的影响因素，构建融合谣言特征的农业突发公共事件网络舆情评估指标体系；其次，借助主客观相结合的层次分析法-熵权法方法确定指标权重；最后，基于98 678条农业突发公共事件微博舆情数据，对6 640条按小时聚合的分组数据进行聚类分析，建立农业突发公共事件网络舆情风险四级分类标准，并从农业信息主体维度、农业信息资源维度、农业信息环境维度分析了不同指标对网络舆情风险的影响力。基于影响力分析结果，提出农业突发公共事件网络舆情的治理建议：重视农业突发公共事件网络舆情关键时段的舆情监控工作；实时监控关键指标，防止舆情从低风险跃迁至高风险；构建实时辟谣和信息发布机制。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The efficacy of the response to Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies is closely associated with farmers’ livelihoods and the overall state of agricultural prosperity and rural revitalization. The establishment of a risk assessment system for Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies can offer powerful decision-making support for the prevention and emergency treatment of Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies. Firstly, grounded on the theory of information ecology, this paper dissects the factors influencing the risk of Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies and constructs an evaluation index system integrating the traits of rumors. Secondly, the index weight is ascertained by the AHP-EWM method which combines subjectivity and objectivity. Finally, based on 98 678 Weibo public opinion data of agricultural public emergencies, cluster analysis is conducted on 6 640 grouped data aggregated by hour, and a four-level classification criterion is established for the risk of Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies. The influence analysis is carried out from the dimensions of agriculture-related information person, agriculture-related information resource, and agriculture-related information environment. Based on the results of the analysis of the influence, this study summarizes the governance proposals for Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies: focusing on the monitoring of Internet public opinion on agricultural public emergencies during key periods; conducting real-time monitoring of key indicators to prevent public opinion from escalating from low risk to high risk; and establishing a real-time rumor-refuting and information-release mechanism. |
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